Awhile back I posted a view on whether Google Wave would succeed or not, reacting to Anil Dash’s prediction it wouldn’t succeed. I don’t think Anil Dash was correct, but I am not sure I was either:
It is way too soon to say if Wave will succeed or not, but looking at innovative ideas from the lens of your current thinking will probably result in misguided conclusions. You really have to think about these things as new, and decide if people will adopt them. Once enough do, they can become competitors to existing products, tools and technologies. The question is not whether Wave replaces email. It is whether people find ways to use wave that aren’t served by existing tools. Once that happens, people themselvles will decide whether it’s a replacement, an addition, or a waste of time.
Well, I suppose I was correct in the sense that the answer really was whether or not people would find ways to use Wave: they didn’t. And neither did I.
Wave was probably too soon, or too much a gleam in a bunch of engineers eyes to be successful. Still was a pretty amazing bit of technology though. I did have one killer idea for it. I should really, … nah.